The odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth just before Christmas in 2032 have risen again. It started out with only a 1.2% chance, which rose to 2.3%, then 2.6%, but recent observations have made it now stand at 3.1%. That’s a 1 in 32 chance of collision. While astronomers say it means there’s a 96.8% chance it’ll miss us completely, and keep pointing out that the more data they get, the more likely it will miss, the trend definitely seems to be going the other way.
Chance of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 smashing into Earth rises yet again to 3.1%, NASA reports
In any emergency decision, the James Webb Space Telescope, will take advantage of the asteroid reaching peak brightness next week. This will be the last chance to view it before its next close approach in 2028. Which makes for only a couple of years to design, build, and launch some sort of planetary defense if needed.
In emergency decision, James Webb telescope will study ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 before its close approach to Earth
So it is still a little early to be calling 2024 YR4 “Wormwood” just yet. This is the falling “star” that will cause a lot of devastation in the Last Days. From what we know know, the description in Revelation sounds a lot like a comet or asteroid impact, spreading a pall of poisonous dust that darkens the sky, ejecting showers of burning debris, and causing earthquakes and tsunamis.
The third angel sounded, and a great star fell from the sky, burning like a torch, and it fell on one third of the rivers, and on the springs of water. The name of the star is “Wormwood.” One third of the waters became wormwood. Many people died from the waters, because they were made bitter.
The fourth angel sounded, and one third of the sun was struck, and one third of the moon, and one third of the stars, so that one third of them would be darkened; and the day wouldn’t shine for one third of it, and the night in the same way. [Rev. 8:10-12]
Since 2024 YR4 is thought to have about the energy of the Hiroshima bomb, it couldn’t destroy a third of everything. But it could certainly obliterate enough, especially with a lucky shot. And besides, as far as is known, the astronomers haven’t precisely determined its size, mass, or composition either yet. Stay tuned.
UPDATE — Funny thing, even before those new observations from the James West Space Telescope have been made, they are changing the numbers again. Fortunately, downwards. As of February 21, 2025, it’s down to 1.5% Why, who knows?
