If Apophis doesn’t hit us on April 13, 2029 — and astronomers reassure us a just little too earnestly how unlikely it is each time the subject comes up — we might not have to wait for its next close approach. A newly discovered asteroid larger than the Eiffel Tower could possibly take the honors on December 22, 2032, just in time for Christmas. Designated 2024 YR4, this space rock has a 1 out of 83 chance of scoring a direct hit, or about 1.3%.
While neither are planet-killers, Apophis originally had a score of 4 on the Torino Scale, later downgraded to 0, while this new one gets 3 — still reason for concern. And as it would pack the punch of a 10 megaton bomb, the strike could still be large enough to be the apparent asteroid that Revelation mentions.
Unfortunately, recent observations seem to be showing a growing chance of collision rather than a lessening one. Early estimates of where the impact site would be are along a near-equatorial corridor from the Western Pacific across South America, the Atlantic, Africa, and South Asia. But if they don’t nail the orbit down now, it might be too late for an attempt to deflect it.
